BreakThrough

In the second part of this piece, the results of the Agricultural Performance Survey reported that a total of 62,083 houses were destroyed by flood in 15 states of the federation. The survey was conducted between August and September 2020.

Among the 15 states affected by the flood at the time of the survey, Jigawa state recorded the highest number of houses destroyed by the flood. About 50,000 houses involving 100s of thousands of households were devastatingly affected. Other states were not as bad as Jigawa particularly Hadejia town.

Thus, the next state affected was Kano in which about 6,200 houses. The least number of houses destroyed by the flood was recorded in Nasarawa State with only six houses during the period of the study.

READ ALSO: 2020 Agricultural Performance Results: Is Nigeria food secured? (II), by Prof M.K Othman

In addition to houses, farmlands, infrastructure, lives were also lost due to flood in the 2020 wet season. Deaths of 86 people in nine states of Nigeria were reported. The states were Kano, Sokoto, Jigawa, Kebbi, Gombe, Niger, Bauchi, Nasarawa, and Kwara State.

The highest number of 20 deaths was in Jigawa State while the least number of one person was in Kwara State. The aggregated monetary loss of crops, houses, and other properties is unquantifiable and the lives lost were irreplaceable. Indeed, the losses were quite staggering to farmers and indeed to the whole nation.

Despite the challenges caused by the flood, the 2020 APS report presented a mixed situation; a slight increase in some crops and a slight decrease in others. Generally, the food security situation in the country poses challenges, which can be handled with careful planning and dedication from the policymakers. The yields of most stable crops are likely to decrease as contained in the 2020 APS Report.

Rice, the most stable food crop in Nigeria is estimated to decrease yield by 3% this year compared to 2019. The production forecast for rice is estimated to be 8,171,750 tons in 2020 compared to 8,435,610 tons in 2019 resulting in a decrease of 3%.

Thus, 28 States (76%) recorded a decrease in rice output due to floods and other production constraints. States with the appreciable increase of rice outputs compared to 2019 production outputs are Lagos with 7.2%, Akwa Ibom; 4.92%, Edo; 7.98%, Ogun; 6.09%, and Ebonyi; 1.7%. Others are Gombe and Adamawa state with 1.42% and 3.43%, respectively.

Maize, another important stable crop whose output forecast is reported to decrease at the national level. Surprisingly, there was an increase in the cultivated area from 6,033,410 hectares in 2019 to 6,048,610 hectares in 2020 that represents a 0.25% increase. Ideally, there should have been an increase in the production output but a slight decrease was the case.

A total of 12.4 million metric tons is the 2020 output production forecast of maize in 2020, which is slightly less than 12.6 million metric tons achieved in 2019 representing a 1.55% decrease. Dry spells and drought are the reasons for the decrease in the South West, North Central, and South-Eastern states.

The flood was another reason for the decrease in production output in some states. The inadequate and high cost of fertilizer was a major reason for the decrease in maize production output across all the states. Covid-19 Pandemic grossly affected the production, distribution, and supply of inorganic fertilizer in Nigeria and many other countries.

Another key reason for the decrease in maize production is inadequate and poor access to improved seeds. Thus, there is a general decrease in maize production output in 2020. Individual state level, the decrease in production output was worse in Abia with 9.87%, then Ogun follows with 8.65, Gombe was next with 7.32 and Borno follows with 6.84%. Sorghum is another crop whose production is reported to decrease in the year, 2020.

The production output in the year is 6.08 Million tons as compared to 2019, which has a value of 6.67 Million tons representing about an 8.8% fall in production.  It is important to note that cultivated land for Sorghum, maize, and rice was increased in 2020 to take advantage of border closure and bridge the gap created by such policy but the Pandemic, flood and inadequate inputs frustrated the farmers. Similar trends were reported for a few other crops.

However, there is a rosy picture on the production outputs of few other stable crops, cowpea and soybean are two of such crops. The cultivated land area for cowpea was increased from 4,931,320 hectares in 2019 to 4,973,520 hectares in 2020 representing 0.86%.

The production output of the cowpea is reported to increase by 1.68% from the expected yield of 4,132,830 tons in 2020 from the 2019 yield of 4,132,830 tons. Soybean is to increase in yield by 5.48% with major production zones in North Central and North West Zones accounting for 82% of production.

The Major Producing States are Benue, Kaduna, Taraba, and Niger where farmers shifted to the production of legumes that require less fertilizer application. There are many implications to the mixed situation of 2020 wet season crop performance.

The first implication is the need to bridge the likely food gap created by the decrease in the yields of some stable crops. This can be addressed through massive engagements of farmers to commence dry season farming.

The flood occurrences in some states provide the perfect opportunity to harness the underground water for irrigated agriculture. What are other implications of 2020 Agric Performance? What is the performance of livestock and fisheries in the country?

To be concluded next week.

Prof Othman writes from NAERLS, ABU Zaria and can be reached via email: mkothman@gmail.com.