Nigeria and the sahel: A precarious dance amidst the coup era, by Ibrahim T. Tumsah
In the heart of the African savannah, where the sun paints the land in golden hues, lies a tapestry woven with threads of history and intrigue. Nigeria, the Giant of Africa, burdened with power and ambition, is surrounded by it’s Sehalian brothers who dance to the rhythm of their own destinies. As the sun sets on a landscape wrought with challenges, Nigeria finds itself at a crossroads, navigating a delicate dance with its neighbours amidst the rise of coups in West Africa. In this orchestra of complexities, Nigeria must embrace a strategy that weaves unity, diplomacy, and strength to foster a harmonious regional bond.
In the delicate dance of West African diplomacy, the recent series of military takeovers in Niger, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso and Guinea has sent tremors across the region. Nigeria, a giant among its peers, can no longer watch from the sidelines. As renowned Nigerian author Chinua Achebe once said, “The world is like a mask dancing. If you want to see it well, you do not stand in one place.” Nigeria must now join the dance, navigating through the turmoil with finesse and responsibility.
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The Sahelian belt has often been likened to a fragile bridge connecting North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Historically, it was the seat of flourishing empires and trade routes that shaped the destinies of the people within. Today, the region’s stability is shaken by political upheavals and socio-economic disparities.
However, these coups in the Sahel should come as no surprise to anyone, they have been a long time in the making. The UN described the levels of terrorist attacks as “unprecedented” and “devastating” as recently as 2020! The region of the Sahel is the shoreline to the Saharan sea, with large spaces of this region highly ungoverned with migrants crossing it to move on to greener pastures in Europe and the Mediterranean. The chaos plays perfectly into terrorist group hands who then use it’s well trodden tracks to achieve their wider aims.
In the 1960’s heads of government in the Organization of African Unity (OAU) reluctantly chose to stick with the colonial borders to promote peace and stability, fearing that conflict would break out if they decided to negotiate land swaps with each other based on pre colonial ethnic territories. These same borders have become a source of conflict. These conflicts arise from differences in the ethnic make up of the countries. For example within Mali are two distinct geographical and cultural groups, north and south. The north dominated by Tuaregs and the South dominated by the Bambara people. Each group viewing the other as a threat. Same situation can be observed in Niger and other countries in the Sahel. Terrorist attacks by Islamist groups or ethnically motivated political groups such as the Tuareg fighters called the National Movement for the liberation of Azawad in the Malian state have been happening since the early 2010’s. These groups cause chaos in the region and when they succeed in spreading out towards the interior of the Sahel tend to leave power vacuums for military juntas in the Sahel to exploit. Which they have done with aplomb.
Nigeria has a vibrant, violent political history, and Nigeria must use it’s history as a guiding principle in dealing with it’s West African counterparts. As the most influential country in the ECOWAS bloc, Nigeria has a big part to play in the Sahel. This role must be deployed with wisdom and diplomacy. It is within this position of influence that Nigeria must do whatever it can in it’s power to deescalate the regional tension.
Nigeria must employ diplomatic dialogue with the rogue states across the Sahel with the view of guiding our West African counterparts back towards democracy or a fair political system. Nigeria’s position in the region should not be one of overlords threatening military and economic sanctions, but to offer alternatives and peaceful resolutions. Conditional offers of military and economic cooperation to secure both the borders of Niger and Nigeria as well as tackling insurgency in the Sahelian desert should be the main concern.
The Sahel is a complex web of insecurity and terrorism. Nigeria has had to battle with its own insecurity challenges, so a collaborative security network between both countries should be sought. The border corridors is a place that bustles with economic activity; meaning sanctions are counterproductive to the trade and commercial interests of both countries. The Sahel shares deep cultural ties with Nigeria and can serve as way to bridge the gap between the political stances chosen by all parties involved in this precarious situation. The longer broader view of this conditional cooperation should be for a return to democratic stability in the various Sahelian countries after a certain negotiable period of time has elapsed.
A Chadian proverb goes; “Where two rivers meet, the waters are calm.” The relationship between Nigeria and the Sahelian countries, amidst the recent coup d’etats, is akin to navigating a stormy sea in a vessel bound together by history, shared values, and mutual interests. The waves of the waters are rising, and the winds are fierce, but the ship must not be allowed to sink. Wherever there is instability in Africa, there always seems to be instigators not far behind. The influence of France, Russia and the United States have managed to create a region brimming with sharks and killer whales ready to unsteady an already fragile ship.
It is the right stance that Nigeria condemns the putschists. However, these are sovereign nations who also have their own long histories of military rule. Nigeria as the figurehead of ECOWAS should avoid threatening military action or the use of force to try to dislodge the heads of states. The provocative stance will only serve to alienate the masses in these states. Nigeria cannot afford to be viewed as imperialists infringing upon the sovereignty of our neighbours, especially with our shared colonial past and the popularity of the coups within the Sahelian nations.
During Nigeria’s coup era, no outside influence tried to intervene except France in the Biafra. It would be immoral for Nigeria to try to meddle in the affairs of other sovereign nations when they are going through their own major political upheavals. Let these nations go through their motions and decide on what is best for their countries. The only prayer is that these countries do not go the way of leaning too far towards one camp or the other in a multi-polar world. Only time will tell if they will come to a peaceful resolution. The best Nigeria can do is wait and stand at alert for whatever may come.