On the dynamics of protests in Nigeria, by Muhsin Ibrahim
Decades after gaining independence in 1960, Nigeria remains a complex country in every sense. It is a nation of abundance and poverty, exceptional brilliance and widespread illiteracy, and much more. With a population of over 220 million people of diverse characteristics and backgrounds, Nigerians are found across the globe. Nigeria has the good, the bad and the ugly.
Wole Soyinka, the first African Nobel laureate, recently celebrated his 90th birthday. Aliko Dangote, also from Nigeria, has been the wealthiest black man for over a decade. However, Nigeria is also known for having some of the most wanted fraudsters on the FBI list. The country also overtook India as the so-called capital poverty of the world, with 71 million people living in extreme poverty today.
Like many countries with petrodollar economies, Nigeria has had to contend with a plethora of socio-political crises occasioned by long years of corruption, social neglect, prebendal politics, political exclusion, and marginalisation; ethno-religious and tribal confrontations; and the state’s failure towards genuine national integration, among other things.
Nigeria’s unique history, home to people of various ethnicities, cultures, and religions, has contributed significantly to its present-day socio-political climate. Political leaders have come and gone. Problems with the development of the economy, creating and sustaining jobs, the dignity of labour, lack of electricity and other basic social amenities, and spiralling security situations, especially in the South East and the North, have featured prominently.
Nigeria is experiencing multiple crises, with signs of growing popular discontent and frustration.
A new generation is demanding change or has lost hope in the country. Many attribute the current dire situation to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who took office in 2023 and implemented harsh economic policies, leading to a significant increase in the prices of goods and services. As a result, the youth are planning a nationwide protest on August 1, 2024, but there is a palpable fear that this may not end well for both the government and the aggrieved youth.
Rewind briefly to the years of General Ibrahim Babangida (1985 to 1993). That regime brought about harsh economic policy that led to the collapse of the country’s economy at the time. That monetary policy, alias SAP, was impliedly the cause of the regime’s downfall. The proscription of the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) in 1987 and then the annulment of the presidential election of 1993 (‘June 12’), together with the continuity in mismanagement, led to massive protests and civil disobedience that forced the government to vacate office.
With social media today, the cost of a nationwide protest can be too high. The role of social media in mobilising public movements and protests in contemporary political discourse around the world is no longer in doubt. Social media tools such as Facebook, Twitter/X, WhatsApp, and, more recently, TikTok have become instrumental in organising and mobilising movements to influence sociopolitical and development outcomes in various regions worldwide.
For example, social media played a significant role in the Arab Spring, Black Lives Matter, and various pro-Palestine protests. In Nigeria, the #EndSARS protest started on the internet but later transitioned to offline demonstrations, sparking widespread protests, particularly in southern Nigeria. Muhammadu Buhari’s government could not control the situation and eventually banned Twitter while deploying troops, especially in Lagos. Unfortunately, several protesters and some security personnel were killed and injured during the unrest.
There is a reason for social media’s resounding success there. Social media has been vital for collective action due to the availability of mobile phones and cheap data, which gives users increased access to information. It makes it easier to organise protest movements, visualise digital communication between subnetworks, and provide a channel to contact, praise, abuse, insult or even threaten officials.
For governments, the concern about enforced changes is that protests invariably challenge their authority and the political basis on which they have been elected or appointed. Therefore, the success of either the government or a population segment must be conversant with how protests can alter socio-political landscapes.
Many people not currently in office often advocate for political, economic, and social change and support protests in Nigeria. In contrast, the government frequently cautions Nigerians that demonstrations can be dangerous, risking property, loss of life, and damage to the economy. Unfortunately, this is a common occurrence.
When agitations to challenge the state authority are brewing, influential figures, such as religious scholars and social media influencers, must work with the government to control or tame dissent. In Nigeria, as is often the case elsewhere, protests almost always result in an intense government crackdown. Governments view large protests as a sign of public discontent or political contention against their administration, with the potential to destabilise the regime. President Buhari labelled the EndSARS as treasonable.
In normal circumstances, peaceful protests that are non-violent, safe, and do not question the legitimacy of the government are usually ignored.
Sometimes, governments organise counter-protests to oppose the original rallies. However, in today’s volatile situation, this would only worsen things. To be cautious, the Nigerian Government needs to take action to de-escalate the current situation in the country. If the protest occurs, nobody will win.
Muhsin Ibrahim teaches Hausa Studies at the University of Cologne. He can be contacted via muhsin2008@gmail.com
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