Nigeria in the Emerging Global Order: Implications of Trump’s second term, by Arch Baba Isimi, FNIA
In Defense of Reason
As the United States braces for the possibility of a second term under Donald Trump, the implications for Nigeria and the broader global landscape are profound. Trump’s unique approach to foreign policy—characterized by personal relationships with leaders like Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman—will significantly influence international dynamics, particularly within the BRICS framework and the Middle East. For Nigeria, navigating these complexities will be crucial in defining its role in the emerging global order.
The Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy
The Trump administration’s prior approach brought an era of unpredictability, particularly in U.S. relations with Russia and its allies. A potential second term may see Trump continuing to prioritise personal diplomacy over traditional post ww2 multilateralism. His rapport with Putin could lead to a recalibration of U.S.-Russia relations, potentially sidelining NATO and altering global security dynamics. For Nigeria, this presents both risks and opportunities. A focus on bilateral relationships may reduce the influence of Western alliances, allowing Nigeria to assert itself in a reshaped geopolitical landscape.
Potential tensions Within BRICS
Trump’s personal connections with global leaders may exacerbate tensions within the BRICS alliance. The relationship between China and Russia, critical to the coalition’s cohesion, could be strained by shifting U.S. policies and interests in the region. Brazil and South Africa may find themselves navigating a delicate balance between their commitments to BRICS and the allure of closer ties with the U.S. for economic and security support. Nigeria must be strategic in its engagement with BRICS, ensuring that it can benefit from the alliance even as internal conflicts emerge.
The Dynamics of Middle Eastern Geopolitics
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, particularly the strengthening of Israel and the shifting allegiances within the Arab League, has significant implications for Nigeria. The Abraham Accords, which promises to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab states, will alter regional dynamics. Trump’s potential second term could see a renewed push for Arab unity against perceived threats, particularly Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This scenario poses challenges for Nigeria, as it must carefully consider its alliances. The dynamics within the Arab League, particularly between anti-U.S. factions and pro-Saudi elements, will require Nigeria to adopt a nuanced diplomatic stance to safeguard its interests while promoting regional stability.
Iran’s Nuclear Development Regional Implications
Ongoing concerns surrounding Iran’s nuclear program could further complicate Nigeria’s position in the Middle East. A Trump administration focused on curbing Iran’s influence may lead to heightened tensions, impacting energy markets and global security. Nigeria, as a significant oil producer, must remain vigilant to the repercussions of any escalation in the region. Engaging with both established powers and emerging economies will be vital in maintaining its energy security and economic stability.
The Role of Emerging Powers
As NATO experiences fissures, Nigeria has the opportunity to explore partnerships with medium-sized powers like India, Brazil, and Mexico, as proposed by Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi. These nations offer potential for closer economic cooperation, technological development, and educational ties. Engaging with countries such as Malaysia, Australia, Turkey, and emerging Eastern European nations like Hungary and Poland can create a new concert of powers, providing Nigeria with alternative pathways for collaboration outside traditional Western alliances.
A Return to the Three Concentric Circles Model
To effectively navigate these global complexities, Nigeria’s foreign policy should return to the three concentric circles model proposed by Prof. Ibrahim Gambari. This model emphasizes Nigeria’s role in three key spheres: within Nigeria itself, in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and across the African continent. By strengthening its influence in West African affairs through ECOWAS, Nigeria can fulfill the vision of its founders for economic development.
With a solid foundation in place, Nigeria can then expand its presence across Africa, actively participating in initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). This strategic approach will enhance Nigeria’s ability to negotiate on broader global security and economic platforms, ultimately advancing its national interests as it seeks recognition as an emerging medium power.
Economic Cooperation and Technological Development
Fostering deeper ties in energy, infrastructure, and financial services is crucial for Nigeria as it seeks to bolster its economy amidst global uncertainty. By aligning with emerging powers and utilizing the concentric circles model, Nigeria can tap into innovative technologies and best practices that drive sustainable development. This cooperative approach not only enhances Nigeria’s economic resilience but also positions it as a key player in the new global architecture.
Navigating the New Global Order
In conclusion, Nigeria’s position in the emerging global order is shaped by its ability to navigate complex international relationships while leveraging opportunities with emerging powers. The challenges posed by shifting alliances, particularly in the context of U.S.-Russia relations and Middle Eastern geopolitics, necessitate a proactive and strategic approach. By building closer ties with a diverse array of nations and reaffirming its commitment to ECOWAS and the African continent, Nigeria can forge a path that not only safeguards its interests but also contributes to a more balanced and inclusive global order. As the world evolves, Nigeria’s role as a bridge between continents and cultures will be pivotal in shaping a future marked by cooperation and mutual benefit.
Baba Isimi, FNIA, an architect, public affairs commentator and the Lead Convener National Integration Group, writes from Abuja.
Disclaimer
The opinions and views expressed in this article belong solely to the original author and other contributors. They do not necessarily reflect the official policy or opinions of Neptune Prime.
Follow the Neptune Prime channel on WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029Va74ZvU2v1IqKByXoX3d
Do you have breaking news, interview request, opinion, suggestion, or want your event covered? Email us at neptuneprime2233@gmail.com
