Dangers inherent in the ongoing waves of defections in the country, by Ayuba Ahmad
There is a steady gale of defections that has been blowing across the nation’s political space. Though it appears to be of a mild velocity incapable of causing serious havoc, such is however, deceptive.
Correctly deciphered, it is more of a combination of a cyclonic storm and hailstones, the sort that comes with great, devastating consequences in its wake. In other words, the prevailing tides of defections seem imbued with negative portents inimical to the trajectory of democracy, the nation’s political party system, stability and unity of the country.
Firstly, Nigeria is supposedly practising the American model of the presidential political system. It is unlike the Westminster parliamentary system that allows for “cross carpeting”, that is, the movement or defection by elected members of parliament from one political party to another. Such was the experience of the country under the parliamentary system of the First Republic, 1960 to 1966.
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Perhaps, as a result of the tradition and practice of consistent loyalty to the political party embodied in the presidential system, there were no recorded incidents of elected officials crisscrossing between political parties during the entire span of the Second Republic, 1979 to 1983.
The situation was, however, upturned in the ongoing Fourth Republic when, under the watch and encouragement of President Olusegun Obasanjo, some elected members of the opposition parties at the National Assembly started to trickle to the then ruling People’s Democratic Party, PDP. Frantic attempts to check the trend by invoking the relevant constitutional provisions before the law courts were not successful. That was even though defection was in clear breach of the nation’s presidential constitution.
By 2014, the practice had become so normal, frequent and brazen to the point that an orchestrated deluge of defections resulted in a political tsunami that the sixteen unbroken years of the PDP rule were truncated by the then newly formed All Progressives Congress, APC.
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As it was, the alliances between political parties and the defections of elected PDP legislators and governors were perfected with the singular aim to defeat incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan. In the countdown to another epochal presidential election in 2027, the blistering wind of defections is here with us. But, the only difference is that the propelling motives are very dissimilar.
A significant feature of the ongoing gale of defections is that, it is virtually and wholly flowing in the direction of the ruling party, the APC. Thus, instead of denuding it in strength, as was the case with the PDP on the eve of the 2015 elections, the APC is being bolstered by the extant currents of defections.
Also, while the then incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan was negatively impacted by the earlier political tsunami, the architects of the prevailing gale of defections are single-mindedly committed to the goal of enhancing the electoral prospects of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
By the trend of the political currents in the country, several keen observers
have expressed fears that the country might be on the path to a one-party state. Among the telltale indicators that experts point to buttress this view are the massive material resources being palpably deployed by the ruling party in the execution of the project.
A policy of carrots and sticks seems to be in use as a strategy. Prominent members of the opposition are either induced, cajoled, bribed with irresistible material offers or promised tempting political rewards in the forms of appointments or assured of second terms, in the cases of first-term governors and legislators.
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Like an army in a scorched-earth warfare, the APC has been identified by several observers as a hidden but powerful catalyst in the devastating internal crises that have resulted in the crippling of opposition political parties.
From the Labour Party to the PDP, the two major opposition parties, agents and moles of the APC are reported to be working against their political parties from within for the APC. The unabashed role of the FCT Minister, Nyesome Wike, in the ruination of the PDP is a widely given reference point.
With the latest defection of Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State, from the PDP to the APC, all but one of the six states in the Niger Delta geo-political zone, are now within the fold of the APC. Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwuri, along with his predecessor, Ifeanyin Okowa, had much earlier crossed over to the APC. Joining his counterparts in Ebonyi and Imo States, the last week’s defection of Enugu State Governor Peter Mbah has swollen to three the number of the APC-controlled states out of the five states in the Southeast.
A major defining feature of the nation’s ongoing spate of defections is the fact that almost all the prominent people decamping from, especially the PDP, to the APC are from the south of the country. This is patently dangerous to the country in multiple ways.
The pattern of ongoing defections appears to bear the tendencies of politically polarising the country ahead of the 2027 elections. This is because of the emerging scenario whereby the South of the country is perceived as politically arm-twisting the North into submitting to the demand for the perpetuation of the principle of rotational presidency.
It does not appear that the North would want to be coerced into submission even if the region is positively disposed to the concept, as was the case in 2023. The danger herein is that a political battle line would have been drawn between the two regions if the North took up the gauntlet by similarly taking a common ground of resistance to the subtle but clear political blackmail.
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In a nutshell, the gale of defections building up in parts of the country, must be carefully assessed. It has to be deftly managed to enhance the practice of multiparty democracy in the country.
In other words, the nation must guard against the germination of the dangerous seeds of despotism. History teaches that the rise of totalitarian states under tyrants or despots usually began with the incapacitation or outright elimination of opposition political parties and voices.
Very pertinently, the country must be further wary that the gale of defections is taking on the pattern of regional divides. Nigeria has a very unpleasant reference in its political past. The 1951 incident of mass cross carpeting by members of the National Conventional of Nigerian Citizens, NCNC to the Action Group, AG, in the Western Regional House of Assembly, was a critical, even if remote causative factor, among other chains of events that led to the collapse of the First Republic as well as the attendant gruesome civil strife, 1967 to 1970.
Though enacted nine years before Independence and fifteen years before the collapse of the Republic, the bitterness felt as a result of the cross carpeting, significantly heightened ethnic and regional animosities and mutual suspicion that have lingered through the years. The ongoing gale of defections bears so much semblance to that 1951 unfortunate incident in the political annals of the country.
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