The North Must Hold the Centre: A strategic imperative, by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE
The discourse presented by Ambassador Usman Sarki on the existential challenges confronting Northern Nigeria—rising insecurity, educational stagnation, and entrenched poverty—offers a sobering yet necessary roadmap for the region. His core thesis is both timely and compelling: the North’s survival lies not in the seductive rhetoric of secession or isolation, but in the deliberate, disciplined act of holding the centre through internal renewal and institutional responsibility.
Nigeria’s unity is under sustained strain. Yet, as Sarki rightly argues, normalising “exit-thinking” in a fragile, pluralistic society is a dangerous gamble. History repeatedly demonstrates that nations collapse not for lack of resources, but when separatist impulses are indulged while advocates of unity are dismissed as naïve. The North’s vast geography, ethnic diversity, and deep economic interdependence are inseparably woven into Nigeria’s fabric. Any attempt at fragmentation would therefore be catastrophic in scale and consequence.
The Sudanese experience offers a cautionary tale. The secession of South Sudan did not deliver peace or prosperity. Instead, it produced two weakened states burdened by unresolved border disputes, oil-transit conflicts, and chronic internal instability. Governance failures were not solved; they were merely replicated across smaller, more volatile political units. This is the harsh reality of fragmentation: it shrinks territories but magnifies vulnerabilities.
Ambassador Sarki frames Northern commitment to the federation not as an act of fear, but as a strategic choice. Holding the centre is not passive loyalty; it is active responsibility. It requires the North to look inward and confront its structural deficiencies. Archaic systems of patronage must give way to a culture of performance. Education must be rebuilt, institutions strengthened, and security professionalised. These are not merely regional aspirations; they are preconditions for a functional Nigerian state.
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There is precedent for such transformation. The economic revitalisation of the American South in the mid-twentieth century illustrates what is possible when a historically disadvantaged region shifts from dependence on patronage to sustained investment in human capital, infrastructure, and enterprise. Once perceived as a national burden, the American South repositioned itself as a major engine of growth. The lesson is clear: regional renewal, anchored in education and productivity, can fundamentally alter national trajectories.
Sarki also cautions against treating “survival beyond Nigeria” as a credible alternative. Entertaining such notions weakens the moral foundation of the federation. Nigeria does not need more regions contemplating exit; it needs regions competing to make exit unnecessary. The current crisis is institutional, not sectional. If the North were to fragment while its governance architecture remains weak, it would simply export its existing failures into a smaller, more exposed political space.
True reform lies in the practical realisation of fiscal federalism and genuine local government autonomy. These would empower the North to harness its immense agricultural and mineral endowments, stimulate rural economies, and create jobs at scale—without dismantling the sovereign state. With land, labour, and natural resources in abundance, the North possesses all the fundamentals required for prosperity, provided leadership prioritises competence over connections and productivity over patronage.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s unity will not be preserved by slogans or ceremonial “Federal Character” quotas. It will be secured through visible, measurable regional renewal. Imagining survival is a useful intellectual exercise; holding the centre is the real test of statesmanship. It demands disciplined restraint, institutional reform, and long-term thinking.
The North must lead by example—demonstrating that a secure, educated, and economically productive region is the strongest pillar of a united Nigeria. By fixing itself, the North does not merely save its own future; it safeguards the federation.
By Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE.
Email: bgabdullahi@gmail.com
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