Nigeria’s future and BATS burdened blaze, by Osmund Agbo
Before assuming the presidency, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT) exuded confidence in his capacity to rescue Nigeria from its dire circumstances. Those were the days of big dreams and great visions. Today, BAT confronts the harsh realities of leadership, realizing that the complexities of Nigeria are far more formidable than anything he had ever imagined. His handlers had inflated his credentials, touting his economic prowess and promising to replicate his so-called Lagos miracle on a national scale.
Unfortunately, his performance thus far has been sub-par; he has not performed any better than his predecessor. You know you are in trouble when you have to be compared to a man who could easily win the contest for the worst president in the entire continent of Africa. Under Tinubu’s watch, Nigerians have seen their purchasing power plummet to less than half of what it was before he assumed leadership, leading to widespread hunger in the land. Meanwhile, the scourge of kidnapping and rampant violence continues unchecked, casting a shadow over his tenure.
I have always believed that purposeful leadership is not an esoteric science; it necessitates a genuine intention to serve rather than merely focusing on the optics of it. What extraordinary insight is required for a Nigerian leader to comprehend the urgent need to reduce the exorbitant cost of governance in a struggling nation? Tinubu’s decision to form a bloated cabinet of 45 ministers, while the United States, with its $21 trillion economy, operates with only 15, was not a mere error in judgment. It underscores a prioritization of political expediency over sound governance.
Another pivotal issue is restructuring, crucial for Nigeria’s viability. It’s evident even to the least discerning individual that devolution of power is an existential imperative. It doesn’t require Solomonic wisdom to figure that out. Yet, Nigeria’s leaders, past and present, continue to shy away from addressing it, fearing potential political blowback.
The prevailing narrative suggests that Northern politicians largely resist this idea, which is true; however, past Southern presidents, from Obasanjo to Jonathan, exhibited little to no interest in genuine power devolution, fearing a diminishment of their executive authority. Jonathan convened the 2014 confab, but when it came to implementing its recommendations, he demurred, prioritizing his political survival.
There is no doubt that the current “unitary federalism,” a distorted imitation of the American presidential system, fails to address Nigeria’s diverse needs. President Tinubu, more than anyone else, understands this, which is why he helped place it at the forefront of the APC manifesto. Today, he has the opportunity to distinguish himself from his predecessors, and Nigerians are eagerly watching to see if he will seize this moment.
One of the most pressing issues among Nigerians today, both domestically and abroad, is the need for a new constitution. During a recent episode of “Diaspora Dialogues,” my co-anchors, Farooq Kperogi, Moses Ochonu, and I extensively discussed this topic. I reiterated the point that has been repeatedly made before: the 1999 constitution, derived from Sani Abacha’s deeply flawed 1995 draft, lacks legitimacy and authenticity.
Despite recommendations by Justice Niki Tobi’s Constitutional Debate Coordinating Committee to adhere to the 1979 Constitution in the months leading up to the transition to civilian rule in 1999, General Abdulsalami’s military government steamrolled an illegitimate 1995 document over Nigerians. This constitution centralizes power in the presidency, creating an imbalance that favors the north over the south. Nowhere was this structural injustice more glaring than in the allocation of local governments and the distribution of revenue, leading to widespread discontent and secessionist movements.
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From 1989 to 1996, under the leadership of Generals Babangida and Abacha, both northerners, the number of local government areas (LGAs) in Nigeria ballooned from 301 to 774 without clear guidelines for their creation. This resulted in disparities, such as Kano having 44 LGAs for 16 million people, while Lagos has only 20 LGAs for 15 million people. Additionally, the South-East has only five states, unlike other geopolitical zones that have six. Constitutional reform and restructuring aim to address these issues, promote national integration, and create a more equitable and united Nigeria.
Since the beginning of this year, three different bills have been proposed to restructure Nigeria’s governance. The first, introduced by 60 lawmakers called the Parliamentary Group, seeks to abolish the current presidential system in favor of the parliamentary system used during Nigeria’s First Republic. They argue that the presidential system is too costly to maintain at this juncture in our nation’s journey.
The second bill, supported by 35 self-identified “reform-minded” legislators in the lower chamber, advocates for a rotational presidency among the six geopolitical zones and a single six-year term for both the President and state governors. This proposal aims to reduce election-related contentions and ensure equitable regional representation.
The third bill, proposed by Dr. Akin Fapohunda representing the Coalition of Indigenous Ethnic Nationalities, calls for a comprehensive overhaul of Nigeria’s governance model. It is the most extensive of the three and suggests a return to a regional form of government, dividing Nigeria into eight regions with the autonomy to manage their affairs and create sub-entities. The bill also proposes a two-tier government structure, consisting of federal and regional levels, and a return to the parliamentary system with a unicameral federal legislature.
While each bill has its shortcomings that need to be addressed and fine-tuned prior to adoption, the urgency for constitutional reform in Nigeria cannot be overstated. The current governance structure that continues to disenfranchise large segments of the population is unsustainable.
This imbalance has fostered a sense of marginalization and resentment, driving various groups to demand greater autonomy or even outright secession. Addressing these grievances through meaningful restructuring is not just a political necessity but a moral imperative to ensure a more just and stable nation.
The adoption of a presidential system was initially aimed at fostering national unity by ensuring that the President and Vice President must appeal to a broad, diverse electorate. However, the system’s implementation has often fallen short of its ideals. Decree 24 of 1999, otherwise known as the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, contains 68 items in the exclusive legislative list, which only the Federal Government of Nigeria can legislate on. This arrangement effectively renders the states and local government areas (LGAs) as mere appendages of the federal government.
True restructuring would involve not just a change in leadership but a fundamental rethinking of Nigeria’s federalism. This means decentralizing power, allowing states more control over their resources, and ensuring fair representation and resource allocation. Such reforms would help mitigate ethnic and regional tensions, fostering a sense of inclusion and shared purpose among all Nigerians.
For President Tinubu, the challenge is to transcend the political expediencies that have hindered past administrations. He must demonstrate the political will to implement substantial reforms that address the root causes of Nigeria’s systemic issues. Tinubu’s legacy will ultimately be defined by his ability to rise above partisan interests and deliver on the promise of a truly united and prosperous Nigeria.
The task before President Tinubu is monumental. The burden of history weighs heavily on his shoulders, and his ability to navigate Nigeria’s complex political landscape will determine the country’s future trajectory. By embracing genuine restructuring and constitutional reform, he has the opportunity to lay the foundation for a more equitable and harmonious nation. Tinubu can help steer Nigeria toward a brighter, more inclusive future if he is willing to.
Osmund Agbo is the author of ‘Black Grit, White Knuckles: The Philosophy of Black Renaissance’ and a fiction work titled “The Velvet Court: Courtesan Chronicles,” along with other publications.