7 battleground states that will shape the 2024 US presidential election
The 2024 US presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has shaped up to be one of the closest in recent history. With just days to go until Election Day on November 5, both candidates are in a tense battle across a handful of key states where neither party has a decisive edge. Under the US Constitution, the president is elected not by a national popular vote but by securing at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes distributed across the 50 states and Washington, D.C. These votes are awarded on a state-by-state basis, with a candidate winning all of a state’s electoral votes if they receive the most votes in that state.
With the margins in these swing states exceedingly narrow, here’s a closer look at the seven pivotal states that are likely to determine the outcome of the election:
1. Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College Votes)
Pennsylvania has a history of backing Democratic candidates, yet it has become a highly competitive state in recent years. The state has a sizable population of about 13 million, making it the most populous swing state this year. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by a narrow 0.7 percentage point, only for Biden to reclaim it for the Democrats by 1.2 points in 2020.
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This year, Harris and Trump have focused much of their campaigning in Pennsylvania. Known for its Rust Belt cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania’s economy has struggled for decades due to the decline of manufacturing jobs, making economic issues a key concern for voters. Harris has promoted her administration’s infrastructure policies and pledged substantial investments in manufacturing. In contrast, Trump has targeted the state’s rural, white population by emphasizing immigration concerns and painting Harris’ policies as detrimental to small towns.
2. Georgia (16 Electoral College Votes)
The Peach State was a major battleground in 2020, turning blue for the first time since 1992 as Biden won it narrowly. The political spotlight on Georgia has only intensified since then, as it became the center of Trump’s claims of election interference, leading to his indictment in a high-profile election interference case. The case, however, has been put on hold until after the election.
Trump is hoping to reclaim Georgia, while Harris is banking on demographic shifts that favour the Democrats, including a growing minority population. Harris has extensively campaigned in Georgia, courting minority communities and highlighting her party’s progressive agenda. Trump, meanwhile, continues to rally support in Georgia’s rural areas, hoping to secure a repeat of his 2016 success.
3. North Carolina (16 Electoral College Votes)
North Carolina has traditionally leaned Republican, voting Democratic only once since 1980. Harris, however, sees an opportunity in the state, which has seen its population grow in both size and diversity, creating an increasingly favourable environment for Democrats.
Trump’s campaign has faced setbacks due to a recent scandal involving the state’s Republican candidate for governor. This controversy has frustrated party officials who fear it could impact Trump’s chances. Meanwhile, the devastating impact of storm Helene, which recently hit western North Carolina, has created additional challenges for both campaigns as they seek to address the concerns of those affected.
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4. Michigan (15 Electoral College Votes)
Michigan has swung between parties in recent elections. Trump won this traditionally Democratic state in 2016, but Biden reclaimed it in 2020, supported by unionized workers and a large African American community.
Harris is at risk of losing support from Michigan’s 200,000-strong Arab-American population, who are unhappy with the administration’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. This could impact her chances in a state where Biden had previously been able to win with a coalition of urban and minority voters. Both candidates have held multiple events in Michigan, stressing their support for job growth and community investments.
5. Arizona (11 Electoral College Votes)
Arizona was one of the closest races in 2020, with Biden winning by a margin of just 10,457 votes. This year, the immigration debate has intensified in Arizona, a border state with a significant population affected by federal immigration policy.
Trump has sought to capitalise on frustrations surrounding immigration and has criticized the Harris administration’s handling of border security. In response, Harris visited Arizona’s border with Mexico in September, pledging to reinvigorate a bipartisan border bill and presenting herself as committed to enhancing security. Both candidates are competing vigorously for Arizona’s Hispanic voters, who are key to the state’s electorate.
6. Wisconsin (10 Electoral College Votes)
Wisconsin is a classic Midwestern swing state that has played a decisive role in recent elections. Clinton’s loss in Wisconsin in 2016 was a turning point, as she largely bypassed the state during her campaign, while Trump focused on it. Biden flipped the state in 2020, winning by around 21,000 votes.
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Trump believes he can win back Wisconsin, and his party recently held its summer national convention in the state. Harris has made efforts to match Trump’s intensity in Wisconsin, emphasizing her support for local manufacturing and unionised labour. Polls show that the state remains a tight contest, with each side trying to secure the loyalty of suburban and rural voters.
7. Nevada (6 Electoral College Votes)
Though small in population, Nevada has been consistently Democratic since 2004. This year, however, Republicans see an opportunity due to Trump’s success in gaining traction among Hispanic voters, particularly those in the state’s hospitality sector, centered in Las Vegas.
Despite an initial lead by Trump, Harris has since made inroads, fueled by her plans to aid small businesses and curb inflation. As Nevada’s economy relies heavily on tourism, Harris has targeted her messaging to address issues impacting service industry workers. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, is emphasizing economic freedom and reduced government regulation, aiming to attract those who feel burdened by federal policies.
What’s at Stake in the Swing States?
With both candidates locked in fierce competition across these battlegrounds, the 2024 election has the potential to be as close as the previous two cycles. Trump and Harris have tailored their messages to appeal to each state’s unique concerns, from economic revitalization and immigration policy to climate issues and support for minority communities. These seven states, accounting for 93 of the 538 electoral votes, will ultimately be decisive in determining whether Harris continues in the footsteps of Biden or Trump returns to the White House.
As Election Day nears, pollsters and analysts are watching these states with a close eye, knowing that a slight shift in voter turnout or a late-breaking news story could make all the difference.
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