The Last Domino: Bala Mohammed and the sunset of the PDP, by Abubakar M. Kareto
The Last Domino: Bala Mohammed and the sunset of the PDP, by Abubakar M. Kareto
In Nigerian politics, the “big tent” of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) hasn’t just folded; it has been systematically dismantled. With Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi State, the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum reportedly crossing the carpet to join the All Progressives Congress (APC), the final pillar of the main opposition has effectively crumbled.
What we are witnessing is not a simple defection; it is the culmination of a multi-layered strategy that critics argue has transformed Nigeria’s vibrant multi-party democracy into a looming one-party system.
The Architect and the Aftermath
The fingerprints of FCT Minister Nyesom Wike are visible across this landscape. By maintaining a foot in both camps, Wike successfully paralysed the PDP’s internal decision-making for years. Mohammed’s exit is the “mission accomplished” moment for those seeking to neutralise the PDP. With only Seyi Makinde of Oyo State remaining as a PDP governor, the party that once boasted it would rule for 60 years has been reduced to a ghost of its former self.
A Three-Pronged Consolidation
The narrative from the opposition is clear: this wasn’t just a political defeat; it was a systemic squeeze.
The Executive & Judiciary: A series of court rulings ranging from leadership disputes to election petitions consistently favoured factions that weakened the PDP from within.
The INEC Factor: Critics argue the electoral umpire’s processes have become a mere formality in a landscape where the ruling party’s influence is absolute.
Targeting the ADC: With the PDP sidelined, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has suddenly become the last lifeboat for dissent, gaining nine senators overnight. However, the political machinery is already pivoting; the “destabilisation project” is likely moving its sights toward this new threat.
Nigerian Democracy: Killed by those Who Claimed Bring It
Those who stood on the front lines to claim they brought democracy to Nigeria have, through calculated defections and the systematic erosion of opposition, effectively dismantling the house they built. By orchestrating a landscape where dissent is silenced and the ruling party is the only viable path to power, they have traded the vibrant pluralism of our struggle for a monolithic stability. In their quest for absolute control, they have finally destroyed the very democracy they once claimed to save.
The Real Losers: The Nigerian People
When a country pivots toward a one-party state, the concept of accountability vanishes. Democracy thrives on the “threat of replacement” the idea that if the ruling party fails to provide security, electricity, or economic stability, the people can vote for an alternative.
If the APC becomes the only viable path to power, the internal primary becomes the only election that matters. The general election becomes a rubber stamp. In this scenario, the “people” lose their greatest leverage: choice.
The Road Ahead
Nigeria stands at a crossroads. As the PDP fades into the history books, the question isn’t just about who joins the APC next, but whether any independent voice can survive. If the ADC is swallowed or splintered, the transition to a de facto one-party state will be complete.
History shows that one-party systems rarely prioritise the public good; they prioritise the survival of the party. For Nigeria, the end of opposition may very well be the beginning of a democratic winter.
Abubakar M. Kareto is a Public Affairs Analyst.
