ADC’s problem is ADC, not APC, by Azu Ishiekwene
This is the last thing the African Democratic Congress (ADC) wants to hear, but it has to be said, even if the party digs its thumbs in its ears. It began with the party’s delayed registration.
When things were not moving as quickly as early defectors — mostly from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — had expected, they accused the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) of stalling the process and using the Ralph Okey Nwosu-led faction to prolong the delay.
The party was eventually registered in June, but that did not end the tension. As the PDP weakened and many of its members, especially governors, defected, the ADC accused the APC of coercing or bribing them in a bid to turn Nigeria into a de facto one-party state.
This followed the party’s earlier claim that even if all governors defected to the APC, it would not save the ruling party from a voter backlash over its performance.
Choosing a Chair
The latest controversy centres on claims that the APC plans to destabilise the ADC, just as it allegedly did with other opposition parties, by planting internal leadership crises.
In a statement, the ADC accused the ruling party of planning to use the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to recognise an expelled member, Nafiu Bala Gombe, as its national chairman.
The alleged aim, according to the party, is to ensure that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerges unopposed in the 2027 election.
But beyond these accusations, the ADC appears to be battling deeper internal problems. If the current trend continues, the party risks collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.
How Not to Take Power
Political power is not handed out; it is earned through organisation, strategy and sustained effort.
The ADC, however, appears more like a coalition of aggrieved politicians seeking quick access to power, rather than a structured party built over time.
Public attention has focused more on the presidential ambitions of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi than on the party’s ideology or long-term vision.
Recent disagreements among party figures in Benin City, involving political veterans such as John Odigie Oyegun and Rowland Owie, further exposed internal divisions over zoning and presidential preferences.
Rather than building a strong political platform, the party appears consumed by internal rivalries over ticket allocation.
An Inconvenient History
The trajectory of political parties in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic tells a cautionary tale.
Between 1999 and 2015, the PDP dominated the political landscape. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo won the 1999 election with 62.78 percent of the vote, defeating Olu Falae, the joint candidate of the All Peoples Party and the Alliance for Democracy.
At its peak, the PDP controlled 21 of Nigeria’s 36 states and held majorities in both chambers of the National Assembly.
Today, however, the party has significantly declined, raising questions about how such a dominant political force weakened so rapidly.
From Strength to Decline
Following the 2023 elections, the PDP held about 10 governorship seats, with an additional one secured in Bayelsa during off-cycle elections.
These included states like Adamawa State, Akwa Ibom State, Bauchi State, Delta State, Enugu State, Oyo State, Plateau State, Rivers State, Taraba State, and Zamfara State.
However, widespread defections have eroded its influence, leaving only a few governors such as Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde.
Internal crises, litigation and political manoeuvring have further weakened the party, with speculation that more defections may follow.
Watching the Optics
Current political trends suggest a likely advantage for the ruling APC in the next general election — not necessarily due to performance, but because of a fragmented opposition.
The ADC, which positions itself as an alternative platform, risks losing credibility if it continues to prioritise internal power struggles over policy direction.
Verdict of History
Ultimately, history shows that ruling parties often decline from within. From established parties in countries like the United Kingdom and India to the African National Congress, internal divisions, complacency and loss of public trust have led to political decline.
The APC may not be immune to such a fate. However, its biggest challenge may come from within rather than from a weakened opposition.
For now, the ADC’s greatest obstacle appears to be itself.
