The Redrawn Map: Energy wars and the new Middle East order, by Abubakar M. Kareto
The geopolitical landscape has shifted from shadow boxing to a direct, high-stakes confrontation. The recent escalation under Operation Epic Fury marks a definitive turn in strategy by the U.S. and Israel, moving beyond containment to the systematic degradation of Iranian infrastructure.
The March 18 strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field were not merely military maneuvers; they were economic strikes. By targeting the world’s largest natural gas reserve, the coalition has forced a reality where Iran’s primary leverage energy is neutralised. In a predicted “chaos” cycle, Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Qatari and Emirati facilities have further destabilised the regional energy market, sending Brent crude soaring past $110.
To insulate itself from the resulting global fuel shortage and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. has executed a parallel strategy in South America. Operation Absolute Resolve and the subsequent control of Venezuelan oil production have allowed the U.S. to secure a massive, independent supply. This move effectively creates a Western energy monopoly, reducing U.S. reliance on the volatile GCC corridor. It was an orchestrated plan.
For the GCC countries, the current environment is one of extreme vulnerability. While their economies were projected to grow in 2026, the physical destruction of refineries and the “backstabbing” reality of shifting U.S. priorities suggest a move toward a “Greater Israel” regional dominance. With the U.S. controlling Venezuelan crude and Israel degrading its neighbours’ military and economic capacity, the traditional alliances between the West and the Gulf are being replaced by a more aggressive, self-serving architecture.
What the Gulf should do; they need to respond to the new order and changing realities faster by protecting their sovereignty and economies, the GCC countries should immediately pivot toward a “Gulf-First” policy by forming a unified independent security alliance that reduces reliance on Western military backing. They must leverage their remaining non-oil financial reserves to fast-track domestic defence manufacturing and diplomatic mediation with Iran to prevent further infrastructure sabotage. By diversifying their trade partnerships with China and India who are equally desperate for energy stability, the Gulf can create a new power bloc that forces the U.S. and Israel to respect their regional autonomy rather than treating their refineries as collateral damage in a larger geopolitical game.
Abubakar M Kareto is a Public Affairs Analyst.
