Politics is Not Physics: Why Nigeria can’t be built on fatalism, by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE
Whenever I engage with contemporary political analysis in Nigeria, I am compelled to question not only the substance of the arguments but the mindset from which they emerge. One would reasonably expect that individuals endowed with education, exposure, and extensive experience would offer perspectives anchored in responsibility and national interest. Instead, we increasingly encounter a tone of detached moral superiority—one that is often dismissive, if not openly contemptuous, of the very people whose lives are shaped by these political decisions.
Politics is not a laboratory science. Unlike physics or mathematics, it does not operate under fixed laws or ideal conditions. It is the art of the possible, dealing with human behaviour, power dynamics, compromise, and imperfect choices. Therefore, serious political engagement requires more than elegant criticism or fatalistic commentary; it demands a hard-nosed assessment of reality. It requires analysing the balance of forces, identifying the weaknesses of the opposition, and formulating an implementable strategy capable of countering the structural advantages of incumbency. Anything less is merely intellectual theatre.
This tendency toward defeatism was starkly reflected in a recent interview by Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed regarding the purported fate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) should Alhaji Atiku Abubakar emerge victorious at the party’s primaries. Rather than offering constructive pathways or strategic alternatives, the analysis leaned heavily toward inevitability and despair. The underlying assumption appeared to be that Nigerians are powerless actors—spectators awaiting elite consensus before meaningful progress can occur.
Such thinking is not merely unhelpful; it is corrosive. It strips citizens of agency and reduces politics to an exclusive conversation among gatekeepers who presume to dictate when hope is rational and when it is forbidden. This raises a fundamental question: How do we intend to navigate our national challenges? By recycling pessimism? By amplifying voices whose principal contribution is to explain, endlessly, why nothing can work?
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History offers a far more instructive lesson: there has never been a “perfect” political moment. Societies advance not because conditions are ideal, but because citizens and leaders choose engagement over cynicism and action over paralysis. Progress is always contested and incremental. Yet, one constant remains: surrendering to despair has never solved a single national problem.
Optimism, particularly in moments of transition, is often caricatured as naïveté. This is a profound misunderstanding. In politics, optimism is a strategic posture. It is the refusal to normalise hopelessness or excuse failure under the guise of “realism.” It is the insistence that alternatives must be imagined, organised, and pursued—even when the odds are uneven.
This does not imply blind loyalty. No government should be insulated from scrutiny, and no opposition should descend into hero worship. Accountability, the rule of law, and institutional reform remain non-negotiable. However, criticism that offers no pathway forward or strategic imagination quickly degenerates into nihilism. And nihilism is a luxury Nigeria cannot afford.
Nation-building demands more than clever analysis and gloomy predictions. It requires confidence in the capacity of the Nigerian people and the intellectual honesty to acknowledge constraints without being imprisoned by them.
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When change becomes necessary, optimism is not optional; it is essential. Without it, we risk becoming a nation permanently suspended between fear and inaction, outsourcing our agency to professional pessimists. That is not realism. It is abdication.
Written by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE.
Email: bgabdullahi@gmail.com
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