Alleged Foreign Troops Deal: Tchiani beating the wounds of Mr. President, by Usman Yusuf Dole
Time Is the Best Judge
When a military figure ventures into politics, he becomes one of the most dangerous players in the game. Being a trained in Strategic and destructive approaches, his methods often overshadow those of ordinary politicians. This dynamic is evident in the unfolding tensions between President Tinubu of Nigeria and General Abdourahamane Tchiani of Niger.
As the saying goes, “time is the best judge.” It is too premature to fully accept Tchiani’s allegations about a purported deal between the Nigerian government and France involving foreign troops. If such a deal exists, the blame would largely fall on Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, Chief of Defense Staff, and the two Ministers of Defense all Northern sons entrusted with the nation’s security affairs. No such deal should be signed without their involvement.
Politically, the North remains an African paradox, shaped by compromises made during the Berlin Conference era and manipulated in national politics as a mere commodity in population terms. Some Northern elites often bargain without a forward-looking strategy for future generations. Yet, it is difficult to believe that these Northern officials at the helm of Nigeria’s security architecture would submit to any destructive deal of such magnitude without inward looking. Time, indeed, will tell.
Tchiani, who ascended to power via a coup, contrasts sharply with President Tinubu, who emerged through democratic processes. Tchiani’s regime has severed ties with Western powers, except for Russia that is now fully trying to cope with US new administration to be led by Donlad Trump and, to some extent, China. Ultimately Tinubu is forging closer relationships with Western allies, particularly France. Tchiani’s approach aligns with Robert Greene’s law: “Use your weakness to attract sympathy.”
Tchiani is now isolated due to his estrangement from France, ECOWAS, and other Western allies, Tchiani seeks to exploit Nigeria’s socio-economic and cultural ties with Niger, particularly in the Northern regions. He is strategically leveraging grievances within Nigeria, aiming to deepen political wounds for President Tinubu as the 2027 elections approach. Tchiani’s plan may involve adding salt to Tinubu’s existing wounds, hoping a different leader will emerge in Nigeria’s next political cycle.
The Wounds of Tinubu’s Presidency
I. Fuel Subsidy Removal
The removal of fuel subsidies has sparked widespread discontent. Many Nigerians, particularly the poor, view this policy as detrimental to their welfare. Despite public outcry, Tinubu’s administration insists it is necessary for economic reform.
II. Tax Reform Bills
These reforms have faced significant rejection, particularly in Northern Nigeria, where many believe they disproportionately target the region. Tinubu’s recent remarks reaffirming the permanence of these reforms have only fueled the opposition.
III. CBN Allegations
Allegations of transferring critical units of the Central Bank of Nigeria to Lagos have caused outrage, particularly in the North, where many see this as an attempt to prioritize Lagos over other regions.
IV. Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway
The allocation of ₦15 trillion for this project has drawn criticism for neglecting infrastructure development in the North.
V. France Mining Deal
President Tinubu’s recent trip to France, culminating in a $2 billion mining agreement, has raised concerns. Many mining sites are located in Northern Nigeria, and France has a reputation for exploiting regions plagued by insecurity to extract resources.
In my article Kemi: The Migrant Woman Against Migrants, I highlighted the enduring political alliance between the Hausa and Yoruba. If Tinubu’s perceived alignment with French interests undermines Northern Nigeria, this could threaten the historical bond between the two groups. It could also jeopardize Tinubu’s political alliances and ambitions. As long as Nigeria exists, the Hausa-Yoruba political alliance remains highly sacrosanct.
The five highlighted issues represent open wounds that Tchiani is exploiting to amplify discontent. Tinubu’s policies often act as a double-edged sword, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations, particularly in the North.
It is imperative for Tinubu’s administration to regain the trust of Nigerians by 2025. While he may revise his strategies for re-election in 2027, rebuilding trust remains crucial. Leadership without trust is a fragile foundation, and Tinubu must act decisively to bridge the growing divide.
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