Rejoinder: Nigeria’s fragility, democracy and the 2027 elections, by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE
With the prevailing economic, social, and political concerns confronting Nigerians, it is imperative to pause and reflect on several pivotal issues with the intention of proffering solutions, lest the nation encounters adverse repercussions. It is within this context that Comrade Sanusi A. S. Maikudi’s eloquently articulated piece, bearing the aforementioned title, emerges as both timely and thought-provoking. In the article, the following assertions are made:
The Fragile States Index (FSI) ranks Nigeria 15th out of 178 nations due to entrenched vulnerabilities across social, economic, and political indicators, signaling challenges to the stability and legitimacy of its institutions as the 2027 general elections draw near. This ranking sheds light on the critical issues facing Nigeria, indicating areas that require urgent attention and reform. For instance, the high ranking can be attributed to factors such as widespread corruption, lack of infrastructure development, and political instability.
Social indicators underscore demographic pressures, group grievances, and a substantial population of internally displaced persons, illuminating issues related to population growth, ethnic and religious divisions, and persistent insecurity in various regions. These social challenges are deeply rooted in historical injustices, lack of access to quality education and healthcare, and unequal distribution of resources. Addressing these underlying issues is crucial in fostering social cohesion and ensuring the well-being of all citizens.
Economic indicators highlight a trajectory of economic decline, pervasive poverty, uneven development, and brain drain, reflecting the frustrations and tribulations faced by numerous Nigerians.
The economic downturn is exacerbated by factors such as fluctuating oil prices, inadequate diversification of the economy, and limited job opportunities for the growing population. Implementing sustainable economic policies and promoting entrepreneurship can help alleviate poverty and stimulate growth.
Political indicators expose challenges such as elite factionalism, eroding state legitimacy, and security concerns stemming from terrorism, kidnapping, and communal conflicts.
These political dynamics create a volatile environment that hampers progress and undermines democratic principles. Strengthening political institutions, promoting accountability, and fostering dialogue among diverse groups are essential steps towards building a more stable and inclusive political system.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, the fragility scores serve as ominous warning signs of potential violence and instability, underscoring the necessity of addressing the deficiencies within institutions and democratic processes to avert escalations of conflict and crises.
The upcoming elections present an opportunity for the government and civil society to work together in ensuring free, fair, and peaceful electoral processes that reflect the will of the people.
Elections in fragile states frequently culminate in violence when institutions are feeble, and legitimacy is called into question, suggesting that the forthcoming elections could be marred by ethno-religious mobilization, voter suppression, and electoral violence. Preventing electoral violence requires a multi-faceted approach that involves strengthening security measures, promoting civic education, and holding accountable those who seek to disrupt the democratic process.
To mitigate the risks associated with Nigeria’s fragile state, several crucial actions must be undertaken:
Prioritize bolstering state legitimacy through the eradication of corruption, enhancement of transparency, and assurance of inclusive governance that benefits all citizens.
Transparency in governance can build trust among the population and encourage active participation in decision-making processes.
Foster social cohesion that transcends identity politics to cultivate a sense of belonging and unity among all Nigerians. Building bridges across ethnic and religious divides can promote understanding and tolerance, fostering a more harmonious society.
Reform the electoral process to ensure credibility, transparency, and peace, involving independent electoral bodies and effective security measures. Upholding the integrity of the electoral system is essential in upholding democracy and ensuring that the voice of the people is heard.
Implement security reforms that address the root causes of violence and establish a professional, community-oriented security framework to guarantee peaceful elections and overall progress. Building a strong security apparatus that is responsive to the needs of the people can create a safer environment for political activities and public engagement.
The data from the Fragile States Index serves as an indispensable indicator for Nigeria to comprehend its current state and future trajectory, accentuating the urgent necessity for proactive measures to navigate away from potential election-related crises towards a path of national renewal centered on justice, unity, and democratic values. By leveraging data-driven insights, policymakers and stakeholders can make informed decisions that lead to sustainable development and peaceful coexistence among diverse communities.
In light of the issues articulated, our elites must convene, dispassionately analyze the circumstances, strategize, and mobilize resources to confront this formidable challenge head-on. We must all be reminded that the absence of peace, economic prosperity, and the security of lives and property renders governance unattainable.
Collaboration among leaders from various sectors is essential in charting a course towards a more stable and prosperous future for Nigeria, where the well-being of all citizens is prioritized and protected.
bgabdullahi@gmail.com
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