The Fall of the Assad Dynasty, Who did What!!!, by Usman Shehu
Reasons for the Army’s Collapse
The Syrian soldiers’ swift retreat and lack of resistance can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the timing of the attack played a crucial role. Assad’s allies, such as Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran, were preoccupied with pressing issues of their own. Hezbollah, for instance, had just endured a grueling conflict with Israel, resulting in the loss of key leaders. Similarly, Russia was focused on the situation in Ukraine and navigating the uncertainties brought by the Trump second term. Iran, too, was facing internal challenges, with a new moderate president struggling to assert himself against hardline elements. The Syrian army, already weakened by internal and external pressures, was further destabilized by Assad’s mismanagement of public funds and the country’s isolation due to US sanctions. Additionally, the presence of US special forces controlling Syrian oil fields and Israeli airstrikes on military infrastructure compounded Syria’s difficulties.
Syria’s Geopolitical Significance
Syria’s strategic importance as a geopolitical linchpin cannot be overstated. It serves as a buffer between regional powers, bordering Turkey and Iran while standing at the crossroads of NATO, Israel, and Jordan. The country holds immense historical and religious significance for both Christians and Muslims, with numerous sacred sites scattered throughout its territory. Syria’s geopolitical position has made it a battleground for competing interests and ideologies, further complicating the regional landscape.
Erdogan pulling the strings?
The downfall of the Assad regime has taken many by surprise, both insiders and outsiders alike. The rapid success of the anti-Syrian forces in toppling Assad has left many stunned. Sources close to the situation revealed that the initial plan was for the rebels to advance as far as Aleppo, a crucial economic center in Syria. Capturing Aleppo would significantly bolster Erdogan’s and the rebels’ influence, potentially pressuring Bashar Al-Assad to negotiate with the Turkish government. Surprisingly, the Syrian military, already weakened by various factors, began to crumble from their positions. The well-trained and heavily armed forces, supported by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seized the opportunity to bring about a regime change and fulfill Erdogan’s ambitions of having a Syria under his influence rather than Iran’s from afar.
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Skepticism Surrounding the New Order
The sudden regime change in Syria has left various regional actors wary and uncertain about the future. Israel, for instance would have been happy for the fall of Assad because Syria was not only the center of resistance but also the major supply routes for Hezbollah and Hamas, but now Israel faces the prospect of dealing with a new faction that may not align with its interests. The United States, a key player in the region, must navigate the complexities of supporting a group that includes elements linked to Al-Qaeda. Regional monarchs and dictators are grappling with the implications of the Syrian regime change, with Saudi Arabia and its allies facing a dilemma after having normalized diplomatic relations with Syria. Amidst these uncertainties, Turkish President Erdogan emerges as a central figure, skillfully maneuvering regional dynamics to consolidate his power and influence in the region.
In conclusion, the fall of the Assad dynasty marks a significant turning point in the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, with far-reaching implications for regional stability and power dynamics.
Assessing Assad’s Legacy
Despite the Assad regime’s controversial legacy, it maintained religious freedom for major and minority groups, fostering a degree of coexistence between different faiths. Notably, Syria refrained from retaliating against Israeli provocations, opting for a de-escalatory approach. While the anti-Assad forces promise an inclusive government, questions remain about their ability to uphold this commitment and protect minority groups. The Orthodox Christians, in particular, await clarity on the rebels’ plans for governance and community protection.
By Usman Shehu, Journalist & Founder of Koode Media.
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