The Great Disconnect: Nigeria’s dangerous drift, by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE
Nigeria’s democratic decline is not an accident. It is the result of repeated political choices that weaken accountability and allow insecurity to spread. Many blame a weak opposition, but that misses the point. The real problem is the steady shrinking of political space, the weakening of institutions, and years of failure to deal firmly with internal security threats. These problems feed off each other and grow stronger together.
The ruling APC has chosen dominance through absorption, not healthy competition. Opposition parties are not defeated by better governance but hollowed out through defections driven by access, protection, and political survival. This is not new. From the First Republic to today, Nigerian politics has followed the same cycle: power is concentrated, opposition collapses, institutions weaken, and crisis follows. The saying the more things change, the more they stay the same now feels less like wisdom and more like a verdict on our politics.
What makes the current moment more dangerous is the scale of insecurity unfolding alongside this political concentration. States firmly controlled by the ruling party have not become safer or more prosperous. Instead, violence has spread and taken many forms—banditry in the North-West, insurgency in the North-East, farmer–herder clashes in the North-Central, kidnappings on major highways, and organised crime operating with confidence. These are not isolated problems. They point to a nationwide security failure.
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One of the political class’s biggest weaknesses is its refusal to learn from past failures. Every election cycle wipes the slate clean. Failed policies return with new slogans. Poorly performing officials are recycled. Security failures are explained away rather than fixed. This is why leaders appear confident while citizens feel abandoned. Nigerians understand what is going wrong; what they cannot understand is why nothing changes.
While the ruling party celebrates defections as proof of control, the facts tell a different story. More than 133 million Nigerians live in multidimensional poverty. Inflation has crushed purchasing power. Farming has declined in many areas because people are afraid to go to their farms. Travel by road has become risky. These hardships are driven mainly by insecurity, not opposition politics. Yet, national attention remains fixed on elite power games instead of public safety.
As opposition governors and lawmakers move into the ruling party, accountability weakens further. With little competition, legislatures lose their bite. Public scrutiny fades. Security spending becomes less transparent. Huge sums are announced, but results remain unclear. Attacks repeat themselves in the same areas. Arrests are reported, but prosecutions are rare. Weapons are seized, yet supply routes remain open. These patterns raise serious questions about intelligence failures, weak enforcement, and selective use of state power.
More troubling is how long violent groups are allowed to operate. In many areas, armed groups have controlled territory for years. They collect levies, impose curfews, and negotiate ransoms openly. This cannot happen without major failures in intelligence, logistics, or political will. Whether through negligence, corruption, or interference, the state has failed to dismantle these networks. Security responses are reactive and temporary, not decisive.
Political defections have also encouraged a sense of impunity. Many officials now act as if loyalty to the centre shields them from scrutiny, no matter the security situation in their states. Elections are treated as formalities, not tools of accountability. Citizens are courted during campaigns but ignored afterwards. Governance becomes more about managing narratives than solving problems.
The wider effects are severe. Communities turn to self-help and vigilante groups. Ethnic and religious tensions rise. Trust in national institutions erodes. Economic activity shrinks in unsafe areas. Unemployed youths become easy recruits for criminal groups. Each problem deepens the next, weakening the state further.
This is more than incompetence. It is structural recklessness. When insecurity carries no consequences and failures go unpunished, decay becomes normal. Public frustration then turns into quiet withdrawal. People disengage not because they reject democracy, but because they no longer feel protected by it. Democratic decline in such conditions is slow, silent, and dangerous.
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Nigeria has reached a point where denial no longer works. Many in power assume Nigerians will endure endlessly. History suggests otherwise. A state that cannot protect lives and property eventually loses public loyalty. When confidence in the state fades, stability becomes fragile.
The opposition faces a clear task: move beyond survival politics and offer a serious, security-focused alternative. Still, the greater responsibility lies with those in power. Political dominance cannot replace state capacity. No democracy survives when elections exist alongside widespread violence and shrinking civic space.
If Nigeria is to change course, reform must begin with security. It must be treated as a national emergency, not a campaign slogan. This means transparent security spending, professional command structures, stronger intelligence, real prosecutions, and zero tolerance for political interference. Party democracy, judicial independence, and credible elections must support—not substitute for—this foundation.
The year 2027 will be a test. It will show whether Nigeria can still correct itself or whether political convenience will again trump national survival. The room for mistakes is shrinking. History is unforgiving to nations that ignore lessons they have already paid for.
Written by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE.
Email: bgabdullahi@gmail.com
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