Election Season in Nigeria: A period for reflective contemplation, by Engr. Bello Gwarzo Abdullahi, FNSE
Midway through his inaugural term, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is already grappling with escalating pressure as opposition parties commence strategizing for the 2027 elections. Election season is a period that demands contemplation and thoughtful reflection among citizens. It is a time when the future trajectory of the nation hangs precariously in the balance, and the decisions made during this interval will indelibly shape the country as a whole. Moreover, the election season serves as an opportunity for Nigerians to engage in introspection regarding the state of democracy within their borders. They can scrutinize the electoral process, the roles of political parties, and the significance of civic engagement.
This period enables citizens to reaffirm their commitment to upholding democratic values and principles. During this critical juncture, Nigerians are afforded the chance to meticulously evaluate the candidates vying for various political offices. They must consider the track record of each candidate, their proposed policies, and their vision for the nation. The election season provides a platform for vigorous public discourse and debate, empowering Nigerians to engage in discussions concerning governance, accountability, and transparency. These dialogues are essential for nurturing a healthy political environment and ensuring that the voices of the populace resonate.
The political landscape in Nigeria is fraught with both opportunities and challenges that demand astute navigation, as the political dynamics become increasingly intricate with various factions contending for influence and authority. As the election season approaches, alignments and realignments among politicians typically unfold in preparation for the electoral contest. The election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2023 has presented a formidable challenge to democracy for several reasons: his adeptness in the rough and tumble of politics, coupled with a significant degree of opposition activism that leverages the June 12 movement as a springboard.
His tenure as a senator, governor, and leader of the opposition in the South West under Olusegun Obasanjo has strategically positioned him. Furthermore, his pivotal role in the coalition that orchestrated the defeat of the PDP in 2015 is particularly noteworthy. However, since his ascension, circumstances have begun to deteriorate, with many feeling marginalized and an unsettling sense of invincibility taking root, rendering the descent into dictatorship increasingly palpable. This reality compels many to assert that the opposition confronts a formidable challenge in contending with PBAT.
Although the APC emerged victorious in the 2023 elections, it is evident that should the opposition choose to collaborate, the APC could be decisively unseated in 2027. This assertion is grounded in the results of 2023, where the northern region—the most severely impacted by political exclusion—conferred upon the APC its highest votes. The flurry of political pilgrimage to the residence of former President Muhammadu Buhari is a clear indication that all is not well within the ruling party.
It is worth recalling that the PDP was once heralded as the party poised to maintain its dominion for the next sixty years. Under these circumstances, politicians across party lines opted to amalgamate, capitalizing on the cult-like following of Muhammadu Buhari to vanquish the PDP in the 2015 general election.
This feat can undoubtedly be replicated, considering the pervasive level of frustration and hopelessness within the polity. The question that continues to reverberate is: “Given the current excruciating economic, political, and social conditions, can the opposition present a united front to challenge the ruling party?”
To address this inquiry, we must reflect on Nigeria’s political history, tracing back to the Ibrahim Babangida transition program, the June 12 crisis, the Abacha era, the brief Abdulsalami period, and the subsequent rehabilitation and ascendance of Chief Obasanjo, the contentious third-term imbroglio, the emergence of Yar’Adua, the so-called doctrine of necessity that facilitated Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s rise, the advent of Buhari, and now PBAT.
A recurring theme throughout these events is the notion that elite consensus, for better or worse, determines the trajectory of political, economic, and social dynamics.
In light of the aforementioned premise, and considering the prevailing circumstances and the gathering political storm, the defeat of the APC appears inevitable. After all, politics hinges on strategy and the manipulation of circumstances to align with the perceptions of the electorate. It is undeniable that from the outset, the APC government has effectively executed its functions in stark contrast to its mantra of “Renewed Hope.”Their actions have consistently resulted in hopes raised only to be dashed. Should the opposition unify, the 2027 elections could undoubtedly engender a tsunami of change, hopefully steering us away from an impending descent into dictatorship.
The history of Nigerian politics is replete with examples of power struggles, alliances, and betrayals that have shaped the current landscape. From the military regimes of Babangida and Abacha to the democratic transitions marked by Obasanjo and Jonathan, each era has indelibly influenced the nation’s political fabric. The rise of Buhari and the subsequent challenges faced by his administration underscore the complexities of governance in a country as diverse and dynamic as Nigeria.
Moreover, the role of the opposition in holding the ruling party accountable cannot be overstated. As the APC grapples with internal strife and external criticism, the opposition parties have a unique opportunity to present a united front and offer a compelling alternative to the status quo. By capitalizing on popular discontent and mobilizing grassroots support, the opposition can contest the entrenched power structures that have long defined Nigerian politics.
The forthcoming 2027 elections represent a critical juncture in Nigeria’s democratic journey, a potential turning point. The decisions made by voters, the strategies adopted by political parties, and the actions taken by leaders will all have far-reaching implications for the country’s future.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, one thing remains clear: the necessity for a vibrant and inclusive democracy that prioritizes the welfare of all Nigerians. The opposition parties must articulate a compelling narrative that resonates with the electorate, harnessing the discontent that has simmered among the populace over recent years. This discontent, fueled by economic instability and pervasive insecurity, presents an opportunity for the opposition to galvanize support and establish a robust alternative to the prevailing government.
However, the challenges are manifold. Internal discord within opposition ranks could undermine their efforts, as divergent ideologies and strategies may fracture their unity. Furthermore, the ruling party’s entrenched power and resources pose a formidable barrier to any potential shift in the political equilibrium.
To capitalize on the opportunities presented by the 2027 elections, it is imperative for opposition leaders to foster collaboration and forge alliances, thereby presenting a united front. Engaging with the electorate through innovative outreach strategies will be essential in building trust and demonstrating a commitment to addressing the pressing issues confronting the nation.
Ultimately, the outcome will hinge on the opposition’s ability to navigate this complex landscape, effectively mobilizing support while overcoming both internal and external obstacles. Overall, the election season in Nigeria is not merely a time for casting votes; it is a period that demands introspection, analysis, and active participation from all citizens. It is a time to consider the past, assess the present, and envision the future of the nation.
Through reflective contemplation, Nigerians can truly make informed decisions that will shape the course of their country for years to come.
bgabdullahi@gmail.com
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